GLOBAL ENERGY SHIFT: ENERGY SUBSTITUTION OR ENERGY ADDITION?

By Kukunda Ndyamuhaki

From Fossil to Future: Rethinking the Energy Equation.
As clean technologies rise, the world faces a critical question: Shall we truly replace fossil fuels, or merely add renewables to the mix?

The global energy landscape is in the thick of a historic transformation, fueled by the urgent need to transition toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. As the call for climate action intensifies and nations race to meet ambitious de-carbonization targets, the longstanding dominance of fossil fuels is challenged by innovative renewable technologies such as wind, solar, hydro and geothermal energy. The urgency to transition stems from the devastating risks posed by climate change including rise in global temperature, extreme weather conditions and the adverse effects on human health and ecosystems. However, the path ahead is not a linear one because it is dependent on a complex web of factors ranging from geopolitics, market dynamics to policy and technological change among others.

According to a 2025 global energy review by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global demand for energy rose by 2.2% in 2024, a sharp increase from an annual average growth rate of 1.3% during the previous ten years. This was majorly attributed to extreme weather conditions that stirred increase in demand for electricity to facilitate air conditioning, manufacturing and the growing power utilization by digital infrastructure, data centers and AI technologies. Furthermore, the increasing industrialization and urban development in emerging economies, such as many in Africa has accelerated the energy appetite. In a bid to ensure sustainable energy supply, the world has taken to harnessing renewable and low carbon energy sources as opposed to the traditional and depletable sources such as fossil fuel. Whereas investment in clean energy seems to have taken shape in recent years, it is heavily concentrated in developed economies and China, with far lower investment levels in emerging economies where costs of capital are typically high.

Can clean energy supply subdue the increasing energy demand?

Despite the remarkable growth of low carbon energy dominated by wind and solar power, the question at large remains whether it is fast enough to quench the total global energy thirst. For instance, many countries in the East African region alone have above what is considered a healthy population growth rate, which is expected to reinforce the surge in energy demand. A case in point is the 2.9% population growth rate in Uganda based on the recently concluded 2024 population census by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). It is therefore plausible that the overall rate of increase in energy demand may not be subdued by the clean energy supply in the nearest future.

Are we replacing fossil fuels or merely adding renewables to the mix?

The cost of production of the clean energy should be optimized otherwise; the consumption of fossil fuels will continue to advance alongside the increase of low carbon energy for yet another decade. This situation will only allow for ‘energy addition’ as low carbon energy sources are added into the energy mix instead of the ideal ‘energy substitution’ where the need for fossil fuels is completely replaced. Developing countries such as Uganda still have a long way to go as far as economic growth is concerned and we must not forget that petroleum is the blood that flows through industrialization. Therefore, governments in developing countries like in the East African region must focus on bringing on stream new producing assets such as the Kingfisher and Tilenga projects in the Albertine Graben. This however requires technical, economic and environmental de-risking to ensure optimal returns on investment in a sustainable and efficient manner.

The role of energy efficiency in the transition.

Energy efficiency is one other pillar of energy transition whose progress globally has been quite slow. The 2024 edition of bp’s Energy Outlook indicated that the amount of energy used per unit of economic activity had fallen by a little over 1% per year over the past four years, a rate that is far below the 4% annual rate targeted in the energy efficiency pledge at COP28. The world cannot afford to focus solely on increasing energy supply; not only do we need more clean energy but also less energy waste. Energy efficiency and substitution rather than mere addition must be prioritized if we are to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 (inset).

Net Zero Target: Fossil fuels substituted by efficient, clean and renewable energy by 2050 (bp Energy Outlook: 2024 edition)

Technology and low carbon energy investment scaling

Investment in low carbon energy should be scaled up and made more affordable using supportive policies in growing economies. Likewise, technological investment in smarter grids, energy storage and efficient appliances must be emphasized. The world ought to take full advantage of the current advances and innovation in technology to kill two birds with one stone; firstly, to enhance the efficiency of clean energy sources and secondly, to curb the rate of increase in energy consumption and thus demand. This may however increase the technological imprint on the globe.

Without a doubt, larger investments in low carbon energy coupled with an acceleration in efficiency will propel the global energy matrix into the energy substitution phase of the transition sooner than later.

Therefore, for us to achieve a clear energy shift from mere addition to substitution, we not only need more affordable and clean energy but also less energy waste. If this dual approach is embraced, the global energy system will be better positioned to deliver a cleaner, more resilient and more inclusive energy future for all.

Quick Take: Energy Substitution vs Energy Addition

•  Global Demand Rising: Energy demand grew by 2.2% in 2024, outpacing the past decade’s average.
•  Clean Energy Growth: Wind and solar are expanding—but not fast enough to meet total demand.
•  Energy Addition: In many regions, renewables are added into the mix, instead of replacing fossil fuels.
•  Investment Gap: Clean energy investment remains low in developing economies due to high capital costs.
•  Uganda’s Context: Projects like Tilenga and Kingfisher are vital for growth but must be sustainably managed.
•  Efficiency Matters: Global energy efficiency improvements fall short of climate goals—just 1% reduction per year vs the 4% target.
•  Net Zero Goal: Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 demands a shift from addition to full substitution.

Kukunda Ndyamuhaki is a GIS Engineer