UN Sounds Alarm: World Still Headed for Dangerous Warming Despite New Pledges

A new assessment by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) shows that updated national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have only marginally reduced projected global warming, leaving the world on course for a dangerous escalation of climate risks and damages.

According to UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, if all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the planet is now on track for a temperature rise of 2.3–2.5°C this century, a modest drop from last year’s estimate of 2.6–2.8°C. If countries only implement current policies, the projected increase could reach 2.8°C, compared to 3.1°C last year.

However, UNEP notes that methodological updates account for 0.1°C of this improvement, while the upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will offset another 0.1°C. This means the new pledges themselves have made little real difference. Nations remain far from achieving the Paris goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.

The report warns that the multi-decadal average global temperature will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily — a threshold that will be difficult to reverse. Avoiding long-term overshoot will require faster and deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce damage to lives and economies and avoid over-reliance on unproven carbon dioxide removal technologies.

“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach — but only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”

“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” added Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director. “While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough. We still need unprecedented emissions cuts within an increasingly tight window and amid a challenging geopolitical backdrop. But it is still possible – just. Proven solutions already exist, from the rapid growth of affordable renewable energy to tackling methane emissions. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action that delivers faster economic growth, better health, more jobs, energy security, and resilience.”

Off Target

As of 30 September 2025, only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement, covering 63 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs with mitigation targets for 2035. The report highlights not only the slow pace of new pledges but also a wide implementation gap, with most countries not on track to meet their 2030 targets, let alone the new 2035 commitments.

Aligning with the Paris Agreement would require rapid and unprecedented emission cuts beyond current pledges, a task complicated by a 2.3 per cent annual increase in global emissions, reaching 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent in 2024. To stay on a 2°C pathway, emissions must fall 25 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030, and 40 per cent for a 1.5°C pathway, just five years away.

Even if all current NDCs are fully implemented, emissions in 2035 would only drop by 15 per cent compared to 2019, far short of the 35 per cent and 55 per cent reductions required to align with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively. The planned US withdrawal will further worsen these projections.

Pursuing 1.5°C Remains Critical

Given the size of the cuts required and the limited time left, the report concludes that exceeding 1.5°C is now inevitable within the next decade. Swift and stringent emission reductions could delay this overshoot, but not prevent it. The challenge now is to make the overshoot temporary and minimal, keeping a return to 1.5°C by 2100 within reach.

Every fraction of a degree avoided will lessen escalating damages, losses, and health impacts, which disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable, and reduce the risk of crossing climate tipping points. Minimizing overshoot would also ease dependence on uncertain and costly carbon removal methods, which would need to permanently capture and store five years’ worth of global CO₂ emissions to reverse each 0.1°C of excess warming.

The report outlines a “rapid mitigation action from 2025” scenario aimed at limiting overshoot to about 0.3°C, with a two-thirds chance of returning to 1.5°C by 2100. Under this scenario, emissions would need to fall 26 per cent by 2030 and 46 per cent by 2035 compared with 2019 levels.

Tools Exist, but Politics Remain a Barrier

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement a decade ago, projected temperature increases have dropped from 3–3.5°C, largely due to technological progress. The expansion of wind and solar power has dramatically reduced costs, proving that deep emission cuts are technically and economically possible.

However, UNEP warns that delivering faster reductions will require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, massive financial support for developing countries, and a redesign of the global financial system to channel resources toward climate action.

G20 leadership will be critical, as its members (excluding the African Union) account for 77 per cent of global emissions. So far, only seven G20 members have submitted new 2035 NDC targets, and three have announced plans to do so. Yet, these pledges remain insufficient, with G20 countries collectively off track to meet even their 2030 targets, and their emissions rising by 0.7 per cent in 2024.

UNEP concludes that without a dramatic ramp-up of ambition and implementation, particularly by the world’s largest emitters, the planet remains “off target” for a safe, livable future.

Full report here

https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/48854;jsessionid=FDBF6C7793CAF72832B3408C1053CDD7